A significant pivot in US energy policy may be underway, as the administration considers major deals with Russia at the same time it tightens the economic noose on India over its Russian oil imports. This has created a confusing and tense international atmosphere.
The pressure on India is undeniable. Tariffs on its goods are set to hit 50%, a punitive measure directly linked by President Trump to India’s energy trade with Moscow. This move is designed to force a change in India’s procurement policies.
Simultaneously, a series of high-level discussions between the US and Russia could lead to a renewed energy partnership. The talks have explored a return for Exxon Mobil to the Sakhalin-1 project, a move that would represent a major departure from the post-2022 sanctions regime.
These negotiations are being framed as a diplomatic tool to encourage peace in Ukraine. However, they also appear to serve a political purpose for President Trump, who is reportedly eager to announce a major deal. The result is a policy that appears to penalize one nation for what it is willing to permit for its own companies.
